Forecasting

Octo’s Forecasting helps you predict future cloud costs from the historical spend of a chosen Cost Group. See expected totals and trends in daily or monthly views, and quickly compare forecasts with actuals. If you already know about a launch, migration, or seasonal spike, use External adjustments to set the number for those months. The result: clear budgets, better commitment planning, and early variance detection—keeping engineering and finance in sync.

Create a Forecast

Use this flow to add a new Forecast for an existing Cost Group—you’ll pick a period and granularity, optionally apply adjustments for known events (launches, migrations, seasonality), and save it for ongoing tracking.

Prerequisites

• You already have a Cost Group (forecasts are always scoped to one).
  New to Cost Groups? See the guide: https://labs.alphaus.cloud/docs/octo/costgroup/

You’ll see one of two entry views when opening Forecast:

First-time (empty state)

If your org has no forecasts yet, you’ll see a welcome card with a short description and a Create forecast button.

Forecast list (when forecasts already exist)

If your org already has forecasts, you’ll see a table of existing items with columns like Forecast, Cost group, Period, Creator, Created on, Last updated on, and Actions. Use Sort, Search, or Refresh. To add another one, click + Create new forecast (top-right).

Configure the forecast (builder view)

After clicking Create forecast, you’ll land on the builder where you configure the basics and preview results.

Default selection: The Cost group defaults to All Accounts.
This cost group is system-generated during onboarding and cannot be deleted.

What’s on this page

• Name — The forecast title (defaults to Untitled forecast until renamed).
• Data sufficiency banner — Indicates when cost groups with < 1 month of history are temporarily hidden.
• Cost group — The scope of the forecast; Defaults to the system-generated All Accounts group.
• Look-forward period — The forecast horizon (e.g., 3/6/12 months or custom).
• Include current month — Option to include the in-progress month in the forecast window.
• Lookback period — How much historical cost to display for context (e.g., last 6 months); does not change the forecast horizon.
• History overlay — Quick toggle to show the last 6 months of actual cost for context.
• Granularity — Time bucket for values: Daily (detail) or Monthly (planning).
• External adjustments settings — Area to add increases/decreases for specific dates or months; applied on top of the base model.
• Preview chart & totals — Visualization of actuals vs. forecast with running totals.

Name the forecast

• Default title: Displays as Untitled forecast until you rename it.
• Rename: Click the (pencil) icon beside the title to open the rename dialog.
• Save: Enter your desired name, then click Confirm and save.

Tip: Use a clear, unique title that includes the cost group and period, e.g.,
All Accounts — 6-Month Forecast (with adjustments).

Select a cost group

• Default: All Accounts (system-generated during onboarding; not deletable).
• Change: Open the Cost group dropdown and pick any available cost group.
• Scope: The forecast inherits the selected group’s filters (vendor, accounts, services, tags).
• Availability note: Cost groups with less than 1 month of history are hidden until sufficient data exists.

Look-forward period

• Defines how far into the future the forecast projects.
• Options: 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 12 months (Max).
• The picker shows the exact date range for each option before you apply it.
• Works with Include current month: when enabled, the current in-progress month is part of the window; when disabled, the window starts from the next full period.
• Affects the forecast line, bounds, and totals shown in the chart and header; it doesn’t change the historical lookback.

Include current month

• Purpose — Controls whether the in-progress month is part of the forecast window.
• When OFF — The forecast starts next month;
• When ON — The forecast includes this month;
• Why use it — Turn OFF for clean, future-only projections; turn ON when you want this month’s picture (actuals + remaining forecast) in a single view.

Lookback period

• What it does — Controls how much historical actual cost is shown for context above the chart.
• Options — Last 1 month, Last 3 months, Last 6 months, Last 12 months (Max). The menu shows the exact date range for each choice.
• Scope — Visual-only. It does not change the forecast horizon, calculations, or totals; it simply adjusts the history you see.
• Granularity-aware — History is displayed in the currently selected Daily or Monthly view.
• Use it for — Quick trend context (short lookback) or seasonality checks (long lookback).

Granularity

• What it is — The time bucket for viewing and totaling values: Daily (per day) or Monthly (per month).
• Daily — Fine-grained view for near-term monitoring and spotting spikes; tooltips and totals reflect daily buckets.
  Note: Adjustments are defined monthly; when viewing Daily, the monthly adjustment is evenly distributed across days in the adjustment period.
• Monthly — Smoothed, month-over-month view suited for budgeting and executive reviews; totals reflect monthly buckets.
• Scope — Switching granularity doesn’t change your look-forward or lookback windows; it only changes how values are bucketed and displayed.

External adjustments

Use External adjustments to set the monthly forecast value(s) for specific months when you already know the outcome will differ from the model. Adjustments are monthly; in Daily view their effect is evenly distributed across days.

What you define

• Adjustment name — A clear label (e.g., “Q4 Launch Ramp”).
• Period — Custom period (start/end month) or Entire period (the whole look-forward window).
• Amount — The absolute monthly amount you want applied to each selected month.
  (You can add more than one adjustment for the same month.)

How it behaves

• If a month has no adjustments:
  Final Forecast (month m) = Baseline (month m)
• If a month has one or more adjustments:
  Final Forecast (month m) = SUM(all adjustments for month m)
  (This replaces the baseline for that month.)

Example

• Baseline for next month = $400
• Add Adjustment A = $450 → Final = $450
• Add Adjustment B = +$20 → Final = $470 (450 + 20)

Tips

• Add a single absolute number when you already know the target (e.g., “June = 450”).
• Add incremental adjustments (e.g., 20, or 50) if expectations change; they stack by summation.
• Name adjustments descriptively so teammates understand the assumptions.

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External adjustments can be applied over a Custom period or the Entire period of the forecast. In both modes you enter absolute monthly values that override the model for the selected months. If multiple adjustments target the same month, their values are summed and the sum becomes that month’s final forecast.

Custom period

Apply an adjustment to a specific window inside the look-forward period.

• Select range: Choose Start period month and End period month.
• Per-month inputs: A table lists the months in that range with Original value (baseline) and an editable New value.
• Confirm: Click Confirm and add to create the adjustment.

Entire period

Apply an adjustment across the whole look-forward window at once.

• All months visible: The table shows every month in the forecast horizon with Original value and New value.
• Confirm: Click Confirm and add to apply.

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Review before saving

This preview reflects your current configuration (cost group, look-forward, include current month, granularity, and any external adjustments).

• Forecast (total amount) — Sum of all months in the look-forward window, using your overrides where present and the baseline elsewhere.
• Total actual cost in forecast period — Sum of actuals within the same window (shown when the period includes months with actual spend).
• Chart — Solid line for Actual, dashed line for Forecast. Months with adjustments are highlighted with markers.
• Table —
• Forecast row shows the final per-month values. A small note icon indicates a month has adjustments.
• Actual row shows realized spend for months that have elapsed (or are in progress when “Include current month” is on).

When everything looks right, click Save forecast (top-right) to create it. You can edit or add more adjustments later.

Save the forecast

Click Save forecast (top-right). A confirmation note explains that some settings become locked to keep the forecast comparable over time.

Note – Forecast availability After creating/saving a forecast, results may not appear immediately—especially if the Cost Group is new or hasn’t generated forecast data yet. Octo refreshes forecasts on a daily schedule, so values should populate within the next day (≈24 hours).

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View a Forecast

On the Forecast page you’ll see a table of saved items with columns for Forecast, Cost group, Period, Creator, Created on, and Last updated on.
To open a forecast, click the red-circled View icon (ℹ︎) in the Actions column.

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Edit a forecast

Editing uses the same builder as Create, with most fields editable.

1. In the Forecast list, click the pencil icon (✏️) in the Actions column.
2. Update fields as needed:
3. Name
4. Look-forward period
5. Include/Exclude from lookback display
6. External adjustments (add, edit, remove)
7. Click Save forecast.

Locked after creation:
You cannot change the Cost group or the Include current month toggle on an existing forecast.

Screenshot: the edit (pencil) icon is encircled in red.

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Delete a forecast

1. In the Forecast list, click the trash icon (🗑️) in the Actions column.
2. Confirm the deletion.

Note: Deleting a forecast removes only the forecast configuration.
It does not delete your Cost Group or any historical cost data.

Screenshot: the delete (trash) icon is encircled in red.

View Forecast Data in CostGroup Overview

Other way to view forecast data, follow these steps:

1. Navigate to the CostGroup Overview Page:

2. The forecasting data is primarily displayed on the "Overview" page within the cost group.

3. Adjust the Date Range to Include Future Dates:

4. The forecast cost will only appear if the selected date range includes future dates.

5. Click on the date range selector.
6. Choose a date range that extends into the future (e.g., select the current month to the end of the month, or a future month).

7. Click "Apply" to update the view.

8. Identify Forecasted Costs:

9. Once the date range is adjusted, you will see a "Forecast Cost" line or section, typically colored gray, on the cost chart and in the data table.

10. This "Forecast Cost" represents the predicted future spending.

11. Understand Grouping Limitations:

    Note:

    • A text indicator is displayed to inform users that the graph includes forecast data.
    • There's a forecast data shown in the graph for the current day since the Cost and Usage Report (CUR) is still being processed.